MeritValue

LINDSAY CORP

LNNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LINDSAY CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.89 and $495.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$551.3M1$760.3M2$661.9M3$584.3M3$659.1M3
Net income$42.6M4$65.5M5$72.4M6$66.3M6$74.1M6
Operating cash flow$44M7$3.05M8$119.7M9$95.8M9$132.9M9
Capital expenditure$26.5M10$15.6M11$18.8M12$29M12$42.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$17.5M7−$12.5M8$100.9M9$66.8M9$90.4M9
Total debt$231.9M13$231.5M14$231.1M15$230.7M16$230.3M16
Cash & equivalents$127.1M17$105M18$160.8M19$190.9M20$250.6M20
Diluted shares11.0M11.0M11.1M11.0M10.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$488.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$82.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$210.94

10 shares is a claim on $488.05 of net worth that earned you $67.83 and generated $82.81 of cash last year, against $210.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 13%FY23 14%FY24 13%FY25 14%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.89 and $495.76 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$495.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$90.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$271.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$90.4M
Earnings Power Value
$62.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $271.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$120.18
Base20.0%$271.85
Bull20.0%$271.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-22-019799 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-054198 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-054198 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-054198 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-22-019799 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-054198 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000950170-22-019799 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000950170-23-054198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000950170-24-117056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001193125-25-248751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)