MeritValue

Cheniere Energy, Inc.

LNGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cheniere Energy, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $152.97 and $652.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.5B1$33.3B2$19.8B3$15.4B3$19.5B3
Net income−$2.34B4$1.43B5$9.88B6$3.25B6$5.33B6
Operating cash flow$2.47B7$10.5B8$8.42B9$5.39B9$5.54B9
Capital expenditure$966M10$1.83B11$2.12B12$2.24B12$3.08B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.5B7$8.69B8$6.3B9$3.16B9$2.46B9
Total debt$59.6B13$49.7B14$47.4B15$45.8B16$45.6B16
Cash & equivalents$1.4B17$1.35B18$4.07B19$2.64B20$1.1B20
Diluted shares253.4M253.4M242.6M229.1M220.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$359.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$241.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$111.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,071.08

10 shares is a claim on $359.28 of net worth that earned you $241.94 and generated $111.71 of cash last year, against $2,071.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 8%FY23 27%FY24 9%FY25 13%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $152.97 and $652.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$652.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$264.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16B
Earnings Power Value
$152.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.25B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$139.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $264.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.57
Base20.0%$264.96
Bull20.0%$264.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-23-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000003570-23-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000003570-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000003570-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000003570-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)