MeritValue

LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP

LNCdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $75.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.7B1$18.8B2$11.6B3$18.4B3$18.2B3
Net income$3.78B4$1.36B5−$752M6$3.28B6$1.18B6
Operating cash flow−$217M7$3.61B8−$2.07B9−$2.01B9−$167M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$6.93B10$7.33B11$6.33B12$6.68B13$7.06B13
Cash & equivalents$2.61B14$3.34B15$3.37B15$5.8B15$9.5B15
Diluted shares189.6M172.7M170.7M173.1M186.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$586.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.26
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$379.55

10 shares is a claim on $586.15 of net worth that earned you $63.26 last year, against $379.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 17%FY23 -7%FY24 39%FY25 16%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$75.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.36B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059558-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059558-25-000023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059558-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059558-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059558-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059558-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059558-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059558-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059558-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059558-23-000019 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059558-24-000013 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059558-25-000023 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000059558-26-000016 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059558-25-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059558-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)