MeritValue

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP

LMTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $184.23 and $254.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$67B1$66B2$67.6B3$71B3$75B3
Net income$6.32B4$5.73B5$6.92B6$5.34B6$5.02B6
Operating cash flow$9.22B7$7.8B8$7.92B9$6.97B9$8.56B9
Capital expenditure$1.52B10$1.67B11$1.69B12$1.69B12$1.65B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.7B7$6.13B8$6.23B9$5.29B9$6.91B9
Total debt$23.4B13$31.1B14$34.9B15$40.5B16$43.4B16
Cash & equivalents$3.6B17$2.55B18$1.44B19$2.48B20$4.12B20
Diluted shares277.4M264.6M251.2M239.2M233.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$287.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$214.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$295.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,858.67

10 shares is a claim on $287.84 of net worth that earned you $214.86 and generated $295.85 of cash last year, against $1,858.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 17%FY23 19%FY24 12%FY25 11%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 86% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $184.23 and $254.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$184.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.23B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$212.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.23B
Earnings Power Value
$254.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.73B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$117.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $212.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$212.93
Base0.0%$212.93
Bull5.0%$305.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000936468-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000936468-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000936468-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)