MeritValue

Lemonade, Inc.

LMNDdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lemonade, Inc. earns about -53% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$128.4M1$256.7M2$429.8M3$526.5M3$737.9M3
Net income−$241.3M4−$297.8M5−$236.9M6−$202.2M6−$165.5M6
Operating cash flow−$144.6M7−$163M8−$119.1M9−$11.4M9−$16.5M9
Capital expenditure$9.4M10$10.1M11$9.2M12$9.4M12$9.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$154M7−$173.1M8−$128.3M9−$20.8M9−$25.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$270.6M13$282.5M14$264.5M15$376M16$385M16
Diluted shares61.2M64.9M69.7M71.0M73.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$72.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $72.16 of net worth that earned you −$22.38 and generated −$3.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-53% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -40%FY23 -41%FY24 -74%FY25 -86%

It earned an average -53% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691421-24-000026 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691421-25-000031 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691421-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691421-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691421-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691421-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691421-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691421-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691421-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691421-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691421-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691421-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691421-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691421-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691421-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001691421-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)