MeritValue

Limbach Holdings, Inc.

LMBdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Limbach Holdings, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.8 and $77.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$490.4M1$496.8M2$516.4M3$518.8M3$646.8M3
Net income$6.71M4$6.8M5$20.8M6$30.9M6$39.1M6
Operating cash flow−$24.2M7$35.4M8$57.4M9$36.8M9$45.7M9
Capital expenditure$791,00010$993,00011$2.27M12$7.52M12$3.81M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$25M7$34.4M8$55.1M9$29.3M9$41.9M9
Total debt$39.7M13$9.56M14$2.68M15$3.31M16$5.03M16
Cash & equivalents$14.5M17$36M18$59.8M19$44.9M20$11.3M20
Diluted shares10.2M10.7M11.8M12.0M12.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.16

10 shares is a claim on $161.98 of net worth that earned you $32.34 and generated $34.68 of cash last year, against $4.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 12%FY23 35%FY24 28%FY25 21%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.8 and $77.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$77.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$41.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$41.9M
Earnings Power Value
$17.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$50.07
Base6.8%$66.97
Bull11.8%$82.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-006391 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010995 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010995 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011745 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013285 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)