MeritValue

ELI LILLY & Co

LLYdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

ELI LILLY & Co earns about 18% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $71.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.3B1$28.5B2$34.1B3$45B3$65.2B3
Net income$5.58B4$6.24B5$5.24B6$10.6B6$20.6B6
Operating cash flow$7.37B7$7.59B8$4.24B9$8.82B9$16.8B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$33.6B10$32.6B11$50.5B12$67.5B13$42.5B13
Cash & equivalents$3.82B14$2.07B15$2.82B16$3.27B17$7.27B17
Diluted shares911.7M904.6M903.3M904.1M899.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$229.51
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$472.62

10 shares is a claim on $295.06 of net worth that earned you $229.51 last year, against $472.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 16%FY23 10%FY24 13%FY25 33%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$71.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.24B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$123.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059478-24-000065 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059478-25-000067 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059478-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059478-24-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059478-25-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059478-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059478-24-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059478-25-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059478-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059478-23-000082 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059478-24-000065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059478-25-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000059478-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059478-23-000082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059478-24-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059478-25-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000059478-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)