Luckin Coffee Inc.
LKNCYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileLuckin Coffee Inc. earns about 40% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.62 and $2.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.25B1 | $1.93B2 | $3.51B3 | $4.72B4 | $7.03B5 |
| Net income | $107.7M6 | $70.8M7 | $401.1M8 | $401.7M9 | $513.9M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $19.4M11 | $2.88M12 | $408.5M13 | $579.5M14 | $869.4M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $27.2M16 | $113.3M17 | $387.4M18 | $315.4M19 | $374.5M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$7.81M11 | −$110.5M12 | $21.2M13 | $264.1M14 | $494.9M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.02B21 | $512.4M22 | $412.1M23 | $597.7M24 | $327.4M25 |
| Diluted shares | 2.14B | 2.52B | 2.53B | 2.55B | 2.57B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $8.68 of net worth that earned you $2 and generated $1.93 of cash last year.
It earned about 40% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.62 and $2.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$264.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$264.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$401.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.6 |
| Base | 5.0% | $1.95 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $2.38 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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