MeritValue

LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORP

LKFNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORP earns about 53% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.45 and $62.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$193.2M1$239.6M2$343.3M3$373.2M3$373.7M3
Net income$95.7M4$103.8M5$93.8M6$93.5M6$103.4M6
Operating cash flow$113.8M7$169.3M8$114M9$102.5M9$114.9M9
Capital expenditure$6.17M10$4.82M11$5.99M12$8.63M12$11.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$107.6M7$164.5M8$108M9$93.9M9$103.8M9
Total debt$75M13$297M14$50M14——
Cash & equivalents$683.2M15$130.3M16$151.8M17$168.2M18$141.3M18
Diluted shares25.6M25.7M25.7M25.8M25.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $295.52 of net worth that earned you $40.06 and generated $40.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
53% avg · 5y
FY21 112%FY22 18%FY23 40%FY24 50%FY25 46%

It earned about 53% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.45 and $62.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$103.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$103.8M
Earnings Power Value
$38.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.94
Base0.0%$62.94
Bull5.0%$76.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-25-000087 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000721994-26-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-25-000087 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000721994-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-25-000087 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000721994-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-25-000087 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000721994-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-23-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000721994-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000721994-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000721994-25-000087 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000721994-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)