MeritValue

LIVE VENTURES Inc

LIVEdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LIVE VENTURES Inc earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.68 and $51.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$273M1$286.9M2$355.2M3$472.8M4$444.9M4
Net income$31.2M5$24.7M6−$102,0007−$26.7M8$22.7M8
Operating cash flow$29.2M9$6.4M10$26M11$20.6M12$28.7M12
Capital expenditure$10.8M13$12.1M14$10M15$8.47M16$7.69M16
Free cash flow (derived)$18.4M9−$5.73M10$16M11$12.1M12$21M12
Total debt$53.6M17$81.6M17———
Cash & equivalents—$4.6M18$4.31M18$4.6M19$8.83M19
Diluted shares3.2M3.2M3.1M3.1M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$206.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $206.45 of net worth that earned you $49.27 and generated $45.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 16%FY23 7%FY24 -36%FY25 26%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.68 and $51.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$47.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16M
Earnings Power Value
$51.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$22.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.41
Base0.0%$51.41
Bull5.0%$63.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026675 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-042586 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-052099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-057711 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026675 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-042586 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-052099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-057711 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026675 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-042586 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-052099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-057711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026675 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-042586 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-052099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-057711 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026675 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-042586 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-057711 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)