MeritValue

LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC.

LINDdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$147.1M1$421.5M2$569.5M3$644.7M3$771M3
Net income−$119.2M4−$111.4M5−$45.6M6−$31.2M6−$29.7M6
Operating cash flow$32.5M7−$2.2M8$25.4M9$92.4M9$111.6M9
Capital expenditure$96.7M10$38.2M11$30M12$33.5M12$47.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$64.2M7−$40.4M8−$4.52M9$58.8M9$63.8M9
Total debt$1.09B13$1.11B14$1.24B15$1.25B16$1.33B16
Cash & equivalents$150.8M17$87.2M18$156.8M19$183.9M19$256.7M19
Diluted shares50.1M52.0M53.3M53.8M55.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$51.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$241.1

10 shares is a claim on −$51.76 of net worth that earned you −$5.41 and generated $11.61 of cash last year, against $241.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -13%FY23 -8%FY24 -7%FY25 -7%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 22% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$58.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$58.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008869 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005544 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)