MeritValue

LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP

LINCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP earns about 29% on invested capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6,629.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$335.3M1$348.3M2$378.1M3$440.1M3$518.2M3
Net income$34.7M4$12.6M5$26M6$9.89M6$20M6
Operating cash flow$27.4M7$882,0008$25.6M8$29.3M9$59.3M9
Capital expenditure$7.53M10$8.99M11$40.7M11$56.9M12$86.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$19.9M7−$8.1M8−$15.1M8−$27.6M9−$27.3M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$83.3M14$46.1M15$76M16$59.3M17$28.5M17
Diluted shares25.1M25.9M30,54130,89131,260

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63,879.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6,397.31
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8,740.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $63,879.72 of net worth that earned you $6,397.31 and generated −$8,740.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 79%FY22 13%FY23 29%FY24 10%FY25 13%

It earned an average 29% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$6,629.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$303.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010514 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006937 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007380 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010514 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006937 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007380 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010514 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006937 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007380 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010514 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006937 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007380 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-007738 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010514 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006937 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007380 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)