MeritValue

LINDE PLC

LINdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LINDE PLC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.39 and $136.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$30.8B1$33.4B2$32.9B3$33B3$34B3
Net income$3.83B4$4.15B5$6.2B6$6.57B6$6.9B6
Operating cash flow$9.73B7$8.86B8$9.31B9$9.42B9$10.4B9
Capital expenditure$3.09B10$3.17B11$3.79B12$4.5B12$5.26B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.64B7$5.69B8$5.52B9$4.93B9$5.09B9
Total debt$27.5B13$35.6B14$38.5B15$43B16$53.7B16
Cash & equivalents$2.82B17$5.44B18$4.66B19$4.85B20$5.06B20
Diluted shares521.9M504.0M492.3M482.1M472.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$809.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$146.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$107.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,137.11

10 shares is a claim on $809.94 of net worth that earned you $146.08 and generated $107.77 of cash last year, against $1,137.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 95% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.39 and $136.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.09B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.09B
Earnings Power Value
$136.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$163.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$50.98
Base0.0%$50.98
Bull5.0%$88.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005434 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007424 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007990 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011430 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)