MeritValue

Liberty Latin America Ltd.

LILAdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Liberty Latin America Ltd. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.47 and $53.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.81B1$4.81B2$4.51B3$4.45B3$4.44B3
Net income−$440.6M4−$170.7M5−$73.6M6−$689.4M6−$611.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.02B7$868.8M8$897M9$756.3M9$805.9M9
Capital expenditure$855.9M10$816.3M10$585M11$540.4M11$500M11
Free cash flow (derived)$160.3M7$52.5M8$312M9$215.9M9$305.9M9
Total debt$7.56B12$7.87B13$8.17B14$8.08B15$8.27B15
Cash & equivalents$956.7M16$781M17$988.6M18$654.3M19$783.9M19
Diluted shares232.6M222.6M210.0M198.4M199.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$414.56

10 shares is a claim on $27.85 of net worth that earned you −$30.64 and generated $15.33 of cash last year, against $414.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 -6%FY25 -6%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.47 and $53.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$53.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$305.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$305.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$15.62
Base20.0%$12.47
Bull20.0%$12.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001712184-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001712184-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001712184-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-23-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001712184-24-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-25-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001712184-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001712184-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001712184-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001712184-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)