MeritValue

LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC

LIIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 101% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $173.06 and $795.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.19B1$4.72B2$4.98B3$5.34B3$5.2B3
Net income$464M4$497.1M5$591.2M6$811.1M6$805.8M6
Operating cash flow$515.5M7$302.3M8$736.2M9$945.7M9$757.6M9
Capital expenditure$106.8M10$101.1M11$250.2M12$163.6M12$118.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$408.7M7$201.2M8$486M9$782.1M9$638.8M9
Total debt$11.3M13$710.6M14$162.1M15$314.5M16$244.3M16
Cash & equivalents$31M17$52.6M18$60.7M19$415.1M20$34.2M20
Diluted shares37.5M35.8M35.7M35.8M35.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$328.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$227.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$180.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$69.01

10 shares is a claim on $328.56 of net worth that earned you $227.63 and generated $180.45 of cash last year, against $69.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
101% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 116%FY23 128%FY24 98%FY25 61%

It earned about 101% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 2062% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $173.06 and $795.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$795.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$638.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$498.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$638.8M
Earnings Power Value
$173.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$591.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$129.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $498.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$251.89
Base16.1%$498.33
Bull20.0%$582.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004257 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004257 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004446 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004859 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001069202-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)