MeritValue

Life360, Inc.

LIFdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Life360, Inc. earns about -27% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.35 and $12.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$112.6M1$228.3M2$304.5M3$371.5M3$489.5M3
Net income−$33.6M4−$91.6M5−$28.2M6−$4.56M6$150.8M6
Operating cash flow−$12.2M7−$57.1M8$7.52M9$32.6M9$88.6M9
Capital expenditure$81,00010$011$506,00012$1.19M12$1.79M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.2M7−$57.1M8$7.02M9$31.4M9$86.8M9
Total debt—$7.57M13$4.51M14——
Cash & equivalents$231M15$75.4M16$69M17$159.2M17$494.3M17
Diluted shares51.7M62.8M66.7M72.1M85.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $64.36 of net worth that earned you $17.71 and generated $10.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-27% avg · 5y
FY21 -140%FY22 -41%FY23 -12%FY24 -2%FY25 61%

It earned about -27% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 41% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.35 and $12.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$16.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.07
Base5.0%$12.35
Bull10.0%$13.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001581760-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001581760-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001581760-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)