MeritValue

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.

LIENdata completeness 63%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. earns about 31% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2501% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————
Net income$84.7M1$7.34M2$9.62M2$33.3M2
Operating cash flow−$509,1103$5.75M4−$5.03M4−$20.5M4
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$84.8M5$32.6M6$23.9M7$2.93M7
Diluted shares877,4096.2M10.3M22.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $132.95 of net worth that earned you $14.58 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
31% avg · 4y
FY22 100%FY23 9%FY24 3%FY25 11%

It earned an average 31% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2501% shares · 4y

Share count is up 2501% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-015752 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115112 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-015752 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011094 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-011094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)