MeritValue

Lichen International Ltd

LICNdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lichen International Ltd earns about 11% on invested capital, and has bought back 76% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.5M1$26.3M1$39.8M2$41.5M2$24.5M2
Net income$8.46M3$7.82M4$8.34M5−$6.14M5−$22M5
Operating cash flow$7.3M6$10.8M7$557,0008−$5.57M8−$17.8M8
Capital expenditure$28,0009$1.95M10$3.2M11$36,00011$011
Free cash flow (derived)$7.28M6$8.82M7−$2.65M8−$5.61M8−$17.8M8
Total debt$345,00012$1.06M13$1.59M13——
Cash & equivalents$16.8M14$22.6M15$25.9M16$26.7M17$26.9M17
Diluted shares22.5M112,500130,363175,8975.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$41.42
Free cash flow it threw off
−$33.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $133.05 of net worth that earned you −$41.42 and generated −$33.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 40%FY23 22%FY24 -7%FY25 -39%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−76% shares · 5y

Share count is down 76% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 361% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$15.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.82M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034685 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001520 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-030414 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001520 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-030414 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001520 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-030414 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036244 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001520 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034685 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-030414 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-034685 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-030414 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001520 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)