LianBio

LIANYdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

LianBio earns about -85% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 796% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$139.6M¹	−$196.3M²	−$110.3M²
Operating cash flow	−$98.1M³	−$164M⁴	−$99.2M⁴
Capital expenditure	$886,000⁵	$947,000⁶	$1.85M⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	−$99M³	−$164.9M⁴	−$101M⁴
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$254.4M⁷	$228.2M⁸	$79.2M⁸
Diluted shares	12.1M	34.4M	107.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$24.08

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$10.22

Free cash flow it threw off

−$9.36

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $24.08 of net worth that earned you −$10.22 and generated −$9.36 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-85% avg · 3y

FY20 —FY21 -123%FY22 -46%

It earned an average -85% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+796% shares · 3y

Share count is up 796% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001831283-22-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001831283-23-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001831283-22-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001831283-23-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001831283-22-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001831283-23-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001831283-22-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001831283-23-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)