Li Auto Inc.
LIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on fileLi Auto Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.79 and $34.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.24B1 | $6.57B2 | $17.4B3 | $19.8B4 | $16.1B5 |
| Net income | −$50.4M6 | −$294.7M7 | $1.66B8 | $1.1B9 | $162.9M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.31B11 | $1.07B12 | $7.14B13 | $2.18B14 | −$1.23B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $540.5M16 | $743.5M17 | $916.5M18 | $1.06B19 | $601.4M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $768.3M11 | $326.6M12 | $6.22B13 | $1.12B14 | −$1.83B15 |
| Total debt | $941.2M21 | $1.39B22 | $1.23B23 | $1.16B24 | $1.36B25 |
| Cash & equivalents | $4.37B26 | $5.58B27 | $12.9B28 | $9.03B29 | $8.11B30 |
| Diluted shares | 1.85B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.13B | 2.14B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $48.46 of net worth that earned you $0.76 and generated −$8.55 of cash last year, against $6.35 of debt.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 45% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.79 and $34.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.12B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.12B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$162.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.64 |
| Base | 20.0% | $20.25 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $20.25 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047986 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046495 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000678 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041705 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)