MeritValue

L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/

LHXdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $82.62 and $113.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$17.8B1$17.1B2$19.4B3$21.3B3—
Net income$1.85B4$1.06B5$1.23B6$1.5B6$1.61B6
Operating cash flow$2.69B7$2.16B8$2.1B9$2.56B9$3.11B9
Capital expenditure$342M10$252M11$449M12$408M12$424M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.35B7$1.91B8$1.65B9$2.15B9$2.68B9
Total debt$7.05B13$6.23B14$12.8B15$11.6B16$10.4B16
Cash & equivalents$941M17$880M18$560M19$615M20$1.07B20
Diluted shares203.2M193.5M190.6M190.7M188.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,042.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$85.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$142.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$554.3

10 shares is a claim on $1,042.2 of net worth that earned you $85.24 and generated $142.36 of cash last year, against $554.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 3%FY23 2%FY25 5%FY26 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $82.62 and $113.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.15B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.15B
Earnings Power Value
$82.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$141.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$113.37
Base0.0%$113.37
Bull5.0%$152.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000202058-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000202058-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000202058-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0000202058-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)