MeritValue

LGL GROUP INC

LGLdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LGL GROUP INC earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.7 and $7.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.45M1$1.66M2$1.73M3$2.23M4$2.45M4
Net income$14.6M5−$2.99M6$269,0007$432,0008$688,0008
Operating cash flow$1.35M9−$817,00010$385,00011$874,00012$70,00012
Capital expenditure$1.1M13$662,00014$014——
Free cash flow (derived)$253,0009−$1.48M10$385,00011——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$26.4M15$21.5M16$40.7M17$41.6M18$41.5M18
Diluted shares5.3M5.4M5.4M5.6M6.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.07
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $67.89 of net worth that earned you $1.07 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 -28%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 99%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.7 and $7.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$253,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$253,000
Earnings Power Value
$0.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$432,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.04
Base0.0%$7.04
Bull5.0%$7.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005807 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010393 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010246 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010362 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005807 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010393 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010246 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010362 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005807 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010246 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010362 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005807 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010393 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005807 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010393 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010246 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010362 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)