MeritValue

LGI Homes, Inc.

LGIHdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LGI Homes, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $88.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.05B1$2.3B2$2.36B3$2.2B3$1.71B3
Net income$429.6M4$326.6M5$199.2M6$196.1M6$72.6M6
Operating cash flow$21.7M7−$370.5M8−$57M9−$143.7M9−$140M9
Capital expenditure—$1.19M10$1.44M11$1.95M11$924,00011
Free cash flow (derived)—−$371.6M8−$58.4M9−$145.7M9−$140.9M9
Total debt$805.2M12$1.12B13$1.25B14$1.48B14$1.66B15
Cash & equivalents$50.5M16$32M17$49M18$53.2M18$61.2M19
Diluted shares24.9M23.7M23.6M23.6M23.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$901.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$60.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$712.46

10 shares is a claim on $901.45 of net worth that earned you $31.2 and generated −$60.59 of cash last year, against $712.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 12%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 2%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 106% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$88.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$199.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$79.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580670-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580670-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580670-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580670-23-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580670-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580670-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580670-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001580670-26-000019 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)