MeritValue

Lucas GC Ltd

LGCLdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lucas GC Ltd earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$207.6M1$145.7M2$149M3
Net income$10.9M4$5.45M5$1.4M6
Operating cash flow−$5.13M7$2.77M8$5.07M9
Capital expenditure$1.7M10$6.12M11$11.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.83M7−$3.35M8−$6.83M9
Total debt$5.55M13$9.24M14$13.6M15
Cash & equivalents$4.24M16$4.16M17$4.33M18
Diluted shares2.0M2.0M2.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$184.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$28.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$56.3

10 shares is a claim on $184.74 of net worth that earned you $5.81 and generated −$28.36 of cash last year, against $56.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 3y
FY23 35%FY24 10%FY25 3%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 3y

Share count is up 23% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 145% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$23.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.45M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-016957 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-018091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)