MeritValue

LITTELFUSE INC /DE

LFUSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LITTELFUSE INC /DE earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $108.35 and $342.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.08B1$2.51B2$2.36B3$2.19B3$2.39B3
Net income$283.8M4$373.3M5$259.5M6$100.2M6−$71.7M6
Operating cash flow$373.3M7$419.7M8$457.4M9$367.6M9$433.8M9
Capital expenditure$90.6M10$104.3M11$86.2M12$75.9M12$67.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$282.8M7$315.4M8$371.2M9$291.7M9$366.1M9
Total debt$1.27B13$2B14$1.74B15$1.71B16$1.61B16
Cash & equivalents$478.5M17$562.6M18$555.5M19$724.9M19$563.4M19
Diluted shares24.9M25.0M25.1M25.0M24.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$977.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$28.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$147.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$646.84

10 shares is a claim on $977.57 of net worth that earned you −$28.89 and generated $147.53 of cash last year, against $646.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY22 11%FY23 8%FY24 3%FY25 0%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $108.35 and $342.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$342.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$366.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$267.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$366.1M
Earnings Power Value
$108.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$259.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $267.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$168.81
Base9.0%$267.69
Bull14.0%$337.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000889331-24-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889331-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-009585 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)