MeritValue

LifeStance Health Group, Inc.

LFSTdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

LifeStance Health Group, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 119322% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.08 and $3.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.45M1$859.5M2$1.06B3$1.25B3$1.42B3
Net income−$307.2M4−$215.6M5−$186.3M6−$57.4M6$9.66M6
Operating cash flow$9.42M7$52.8M8−$16.9M9$107.3M9$146.2M9
Capital expenditure$94.5M10$79.3M11$40.5M12$21.6M12$36.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$85.1M7−$26.5M8−$57.4M9$85.7M9$110M9
Total debt$320M13$461.4M14$572.7M15$577M16$563.2M16
Cash & equivalents$148M17$108.6M18$78.8M19$154.6M20$248.6M20
Diluted shares327,523355.3M367.5M379.1M391.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.4

10 shares is a claim on $38.89 of net worth that earned you $0.25 and generated $2.81 of cash last year, against $14.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -9%FY23 -8%FY24 -1%FY25 1%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+119322% shares · 5y

Share count is up 119322% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 76% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.08 and $3.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$85.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$85.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.33
Base5.0%$3.08
Bull10.0%$3.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004096 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022131 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022131 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071462 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)