MeritValue

CENTRUS ENERGY CORP

LEUdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CENTRUS ENERGY CORP earns about 106% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 44% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.46 and $61.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$298.3M1$293.8M2$320.2M3$442M3$448.7M3
Net income$175M4$52.2M5$84.4M6$73.2M6$77.8M6
Operating cash flow$50M7$20.6M8$9.1M9$37M9$51M9
Capital expenditure$1.2M10$700,00011$1.6M12$4.1M12$19.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$48.8M7$19.9M8$7.5M9$32.9M9$31.3M9
Total debt$107.9M13$101.8M14$95.7M15$478.6M16$1.17B16
Cash & equivalents$193.8M17$179.9M18$201.2M19$671.4M20$1.96B20
Diluted shares13.9M15.0M15.5M16.4M19.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$383.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$589.61

10 shares is a claim on $383.99 of net worth that earned you $39.05 and generated $15.71 of cash last year, against $589.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
106% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 261%FY24 45%FY25 10%

It earned about 106% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+44% shares · 5y

Share count is up 44% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 989% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.46 and $61.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
Earnings Power Value
$40.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$77.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.71
Base0.0%$61.71
Bull5.0%$67.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001065059-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001065059-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001065059-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)