MeritValue

LENNAR CORP /NEW/

LENdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LENNAR CORP /NEW/ earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $106.19 and $158.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.1B1$33.7B2$34.2B3$35.4B3$34.2B3
Net income$4.43B4$4.61B5$3.94B6$3.93B6$2.08B6
Operating cash flow$2.53B7$3.27B8$5.18B9$2.4B9$216.8M9
Capital expenditure$65.2M10$57.2M11$99.8M12$171.5M12$188.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.47B7$3.21B8$5.08B9$2.23B9$28.2M9
Total debt———$4.19B13$5.87B13
Cash & equivalents$2.96B14$4.82B15$6.57B15$4.91B16$3.76B16
Diluted shares306.6M289.8M283.3M272.0M257.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$851.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$80.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$227.94

10 shares is a claim on $851.98 of net worth that earned you $80.63 and generated $1.09 of cash last year, against $227.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 24%FY23 20%FY24 15%FY25 9%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 40% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $106.19 and $158.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$106.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.23B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$115.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.23B
Earnings Power Value
$158.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.94B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $115.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$115.5
Base0.0%$115.5
Bull5.0%$145.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001628280-24-002371 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002404 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001628280-24-002371 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002404 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001628280-24-002371 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002404 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001628280-24-002371 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002404 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001628280-25-002404 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)