LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS INC

LECOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS INC earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.58 and $552.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.23B1$3.76B2$4.19B3$4.01B3$4.23B3
Net income$276.6M4$472.2M5$545.2M6$466.1M6$520.5M6
Operating cash flow$365.1M7$383.4M8$667.5M9$599M9$661.2M9
Capital expenditure$62.5M10$71.9M11$91M12$116.6M12$127M12
Free cash flow (derived)$302.5M7$311.5M8$576.6M9$482.4M9$534.2M9
Total debt$1.49B13$2.34B14$2.21B15$1.36B16$1.29B16
Cash & equivalents$193M17$197.2M18$393.8M19$377.3M20$308.8M20
Diluted shares60.1M58.7M58.2M57.2M55.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$263.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$93.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$231.59

10 shares is a claim on $263.05 of net worth that earned you $93.16 and generated $95.61 of cash last year, against $231.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 19%FY24 22%FY25 21%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.58 and $552.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$552.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$534.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$294.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$534.2M
Earnings Power Value
$87.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$472.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $294.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.97
Base20.0%$294.08
Bull20.0%$294.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000059527-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000059527-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000059527-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000059527-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)