MeritValue

LEAR CORP

LEAdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LEAR CORP earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $84.46 and $643.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.3B1$20.9B2$23.5B3$23.3B3$23.3B3
Net income$373.9M4$327.7M5$572.5M6$506.6M6$436.8M6
Operating cash flow$670.1M7$1.02B8$1.25B9$1.12B9$1.09B9
Capital expenditure$585.1M10$638.2M11$626.5M12$558.7M12$561.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$85M7$383.2M8$622.8M9$561.4M9$527.2M9
Total debt$013$9.9M14$27.5M15$26.7M16$27.9M16
Cash & equivalents$1.32B17$1.11B18$1.2B19$1.05B19$1.03B19
Diluted shares60.4M59.9M59.1M56.5M53.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$939.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$81.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.21

10 shares is a claim on $939.55 of net worth that earned you $81.51 and generated $98.38 of cash last year, against $5.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 13%FY23 18%FY24 16%FY25 12%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $84.46 and $643.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$643.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$561.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$360.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$561.4M
Earnings Power Value
$84.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$436.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$131.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $360.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$168.43
Base20.0%$360.3
Bull20.0%$360.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-23-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842162-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842162-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842162-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)