MeritValue

LANDS' END, INC.

LEdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LANDS' END, INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.84 and $2.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.64B1$1.56B2$1.47B3$1.36B3$1.34B3
Net income$33.4M4−$12.5M5−$130.7M6$6.23M6$5.51M6
Operating cash flow$70.6M7−$36.4M8$130.6M9$53.1M9$49.6M9
Capital expenditure$25.2M10$31.8M11$34.9M12$37.8M12$29.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$45.3M7−$68.2M8$95.6M9$15.4M9$20.4M9
Total debt$248.2M13$237.3M14$249.2M15$237.9M16$227.2M16
Cash & equivalents$34.3M17$39.6M18$25.3M19$16.2M20$17.7M20
Diluted shares33.7M33.1M32.0M31.7M31.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$73.22

10 shares is a claim on $78.72 of net worth that earned you $1.77 and generated $6.57 of cash last year, against $73.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY23 3%FY24 -14%FY25 7%FY26 7%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.84 and $2.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.51M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.64
Base0.0%$2.64
Bull5.0%$4.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-23-012307 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000950170-23-012307 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-27 · accession 0000950170-24-041066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000950170-25-046044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126210 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)