MeritValue

Leidos Holdings, Inc.

LDOSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Leidos Holdings, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.02 and $318.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$13.6B1$14.3B2$15.3B3$16.6B3$17.1B3
Net income$753M4$685M5$199M6$1.25B6$1.45B6
Operating cash flow$1.03B7$992M8$1.19B9$1.44B9$1.75B9
Capital expenditure$104M10$129M11$207M12$149M12$125M12
Free cash flow (derived)$929M7$863M8$980M9$1.29B9$1.63B9
Total debt$966M13$1.98B14$36M14$618M15$20M15
Cash & equivalents$727M16$516M17$641M18$849M18$1.11B18
Diluted shares143.0M138.0M138.0M136.0M130.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$378.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$111.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$125
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.54

10 shares is a claim on $378.15 of net worth that earned you $111.38 and generated $125 of cash last year, against $1.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 9%FY23 3%FY25 26%FY26 34%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 98% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.02 and $318.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$318.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.4%
  • fcfBase$1.29B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$238.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.4%
  • fcfBase$1.29B
Earnings Power Value
$60.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$753M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$97.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $238.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$149.71
Base11.4%$238.11
Bull16.4%$289.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-23-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (CommercialPaper)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001336920-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001336920-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001336920-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)