MeritValue

Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.

LCTXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -336% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.34M1$14.7M2$8.95M3$9.5M4$14.6M4
Net income−$43M5−$26.3M6−$21.5M7−$18.6M8−$63.5M8
Operating cash flow−$23.6M9$1.06M10−$28.6M11−$23.1M12−$18.9M12
Capital expenditure$340,00013$413,00014$674,00015$565,00016$522,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.9M9$646,00010−$29.2M11−$23.7M12−$19.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$55.7M17$11.4M18$35.4M19$45.8M20$40.8M20
Diluted shares164.5M169.8M172.7M200.2M230.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.84
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.94 of net worth that earned you −$2.76 and generated −$0.84 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-336% avg · 5y
FY21 -94%FY22 -32%FY23 -66%FY24 -45%FY25 -1443%

It earned an average -336% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007129 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027988 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036309 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007129 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027988 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036309 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007129 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027988 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036309 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007129 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027988 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036309 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093992 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007129 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027988 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036309 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)