MeritValue

LCNB CORP

LCNBdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LCNB CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.43 and $135.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$61.2M1$65.8M2$79.6M3$105M3$102.7M3
Net income$21M4$22.1M5$12.6M6$13.5M6$23.1M6
Operating cash flow$17.8M7$28.7M8$23.4M9$93.2M9$34.4M9
Capital expenditure$1.94M10$884,00011$2.61M12$3.8M12$959,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$15.9M7$27.8M8$20.8M9$89.4M9$33.4M9
Total debt$10M13$90.5M14$210.5M15$155.2M16$104.4M16
Cash & equivalents$18.1M17$22.7M18$39.7M19$35.7M20$21.6M20
Diluted shares12.6M11.4M11.4M13.8M14.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$194.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$74.13

10 shares is a claim on $194.46 of net worth that earned you $16.41 and generated $23.74 of cash last year, against $74.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 10%FY23 8%FY24 17%FY25 23%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 944% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.43 and $135.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$135.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$33.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$33.4M
Earnings Power Value
$15.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.04
Base20.0%$71.51
Bull20.0%$71.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-23-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001074902-23-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001074902-24-000123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007283 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007758 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)