MeritValue

LCI INDUSTRIES

LCIIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LCI INDUSTRIES earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $78.49 and $719.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.47B1$5.21B2$3.78B3$3.74B3$4.12B3
Net income$287.7M4$395M5$64.2M6$142.9M6$188.3M6
Operating cash flow−$111.6M7$602.5M8$527.2M9$370.3M9$331M9
Capital expenditure$98.5M10$130.6M11$62.2M12$42.3M12$52.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$210.1M7$471.9M8$465M9$328M9$278.3M9
Total debt$2.61B13$2.24B14$1.69B15$1.51B16$1.89B16
Cash & equivalents$62.9M17$47.5M18$66.2M19$165.8M20$222.6M20
Diluted shares25.4M25.5M25.4M25.5M24.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$547.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$111.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$760.56

10 shares is a claim on $547.51 of net worth that earned you $75.74 and generated $111.98 of cash last year, against $760.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 12%FY23 3%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $78.49 and $719.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$719.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$328M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$363.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$328M
Earnings Power Value
$78.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$188.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$96.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $363.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$121.42
Base20.0%$363.09
Bull20.0%$363.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763744-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763744-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763744-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000763744-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)