MeritValue

Lucid Group, Inc.

LCIDdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lucid Group, Inc. earns about -49% on invested capital, and has bought back 58% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.1M1$608.2M2$595.3M3$807.8M3$1.35B3
Net income−$2.58B4−$1.3B5−$2.83B6−$2.71B6−$2.7B6
Operating cash flow−$1.06B7−$2.23B8−$2.49B9−$2.02B9−$2.93B9
Capital expenditure$421.2M10$1.07B11$910.6M12$883.8M12$868.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.48B7−$3.3B8−$3.4B9−$2.9B9−$3.8B9
Total debt$1.99B13$2B14$2.07B15$2.25B16$2.72B16
Cash & equivalents$6.26B17$1.74B18$1.37B19$1.61B20$997.8M20
Diluted shares740.4M1.69B208.2M244.5M313.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$86.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$121.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$86.74

10 shares is a claim on $22.89 of net worth that earned you −$86.09 and generated −$121.25 of cash last year, against $86.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-49% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -22%FY23 -40%FY24 -47%FY25 -88%

It earned an average -49% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−58% shares · 5y

Share count is down 58% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005540 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007209 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007725 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)