MeritValue

Liberty Global Ltd.

LBTYAdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Liberty Global Ltd. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 40% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.76 and $44.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.3B1$4.02B2$4.12B3$4.34B3$4.88B3
Net income$13.4B4$1.47B5−$4.05B6$1.59B6−$7.14B6
Operating cash flow$3.55B7$2.84B8$2.17B9$2.03B9$1.21B9
Capital expenditure$1.41B10$891.3M11$921.9M12$908.5M12$1.34B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.14B7$1.95B8$1.24B9$1.12B9−$132M9
Total debt$29.5B13$27.5B14$25.4B15$19B16$17.9B17
Cash & equivalents$910.6M18$1.72B19$1.41B20$1.82B20$2.08B20
Diluted shares569.1M497.0M425.7M375.2M342.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$284.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$208.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$522.62

10 shares is a claim on $284.45 of net worth that earned you −$208.55 and generated −$3.86 of cash last year, against $522.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 2%FY23 -5%FY24 6%FY25 -22%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−40% shares · 5y

Share count is down 40% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.76 and $44.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
Earnings Power Value
$44.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.47B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.76
Base0.0%$0.76
Bull5.0%$12.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-22-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001570585-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001570585-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001570585-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)