MeritValue

Liberty Energy Inc.

LBRTdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Liberty Energy Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.32 and $19.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.45B1$4B1$4.75B2$4.32B2$4.01B2
Net income−$179.2M3$399.6M4$556.3M5$316M5$147.9M5
Operating cash flow$135.5M6$530.4M7$1.01B8$829.4M8$609.6M8
Capital expenditure$198.8M9$451.9M10$603.3M11$651M11$595.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$63.3M6$78.5M7$411.3M8$178.3M8$14.1M8
Total debt$244.9M12$436.9M13$280M14$381M15$493.2M15
Cash & equivalents$20M16$43.7M17$36.8M18$20M19$27.6M19
Diluted shares174.0M189.3M176.4M169.4M165.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$125.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.83

10 shares is a claim on $125.72 of net worth that earned you $8.94 and generated $0.85 of cash last year, against $29.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 21%FY23 27%FY24 14%FY25 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 101% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.32 and $19.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$178.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$178.3M
Earnings Power Value
$19.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$316M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.59
Base5.0%$16.32
Bull10.0%$20.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-23-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001694028-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001694028-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001694028-25-000056 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001694028-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-25-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001694028-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001694028-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001694028-25-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001694028-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)