LandBridge Co LLC
LBdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileLandBridge Co LLC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.08 and $4.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $72.9M1 | $110M1 | $199.1M1 |
| Net income | $63.2M2 | $5.11M3 | $30.1M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $53M4 | $67.6M4 | $126.3M4 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.78M5 | $985,0005 | $4.24M5 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $50.3M4 | $66.7M4 | $122M4 |
| Total debt | $128.7M6 | $766.7M7 | $1.13B7 |
| Cash & equivalents | $37.8M8 | $37M9 | $30.7M9 |
| Diluted shares | — | 73.4M | 76.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $44.46 of net worth that earned you $3.94 and generated $15.94 of cash last year, against $147.76 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 779% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.08 and $4.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$66.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$66.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$30.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | −$1.93 |
| Base | 5.0% | $1.08 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $4.68 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072404 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)