Luminar Technologies, Inc./DE

LAZRdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

Luminar Technologies, Inc./DE earns about -120% on equity, and has bought back 83% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$31.9M¹	$40.7M²	$69.8M³	$75.4M³	$66M³
Net income	−$238M⁴	−$445.9M⁵	−$571.3M⁶	−$273.1M⁶	−$366.3M⁶
Operating cash flow	−$148.4M⁷	−$208.2M⁸	−$247.3M⁹	−$276.6M⁹	−$196.5M⁹
Capital expenditure	$6.43M¹⁰	$15.6M¹¹	$21.9M¹²	$5.09M¹²	$2.02M¹²
Free cash flow (derived)	−$154.9M⁷	−$223.8M⁸	−$269.2M⁹	−$281.7M⁹	−$198.5M⁹
Total debt	$0¹³	—	$615.4M¹⁴	$500.5M¹⁵	$110.9M¹⁵
Cash & equivalents	$330M¹⁶	$69.6M¹⁷	$139.1M¹⁸	$82.8M¹⁹	$20.3M¹⁹
Diluted shares	346.3M	23.7M	25.9M	31.4M	59.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$79.9

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$61.36

Free cash flow it threw off

−$33.25

Debt you’d be carrying

$18.58

10 shares is a claim on −$79.9 of net worth that earned you −$61.36 and generated −$33.25 of cash last year, against $18.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-120% avg · 5y

FY21 -120%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -120% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−83% shares · 5y

Share count is down 83% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004366 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005649 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)