MeritValue

Luminar Technologies, Inc./DE

LAZRdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Luminar Technologies, Inc./DE earns about -120% on equity, and has bought back 83% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.9M1$40.7M2$69.8M3$75.4M3$66M3
Net income−$238M4−$445.9M5−$571.3M6−$273.1M6−$366.3M6
Operating cash flow−$148.4M7−$208.2M8−$247.3M9−$276.6M9−$196.5M9
Capital expenditure$6.43M10$15.6M11$21.9M12$5.09M12$2.02M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$154.9M7,10−$223.8M8,11−$269.2M9,12−$281.7M9,12−$198.5M9,12
Total debt$013—$615.4M14$500.5M15,16$110.9M15,16
Cash & equivalents$330M17$69.6M18$139.1M19$82.8M20$20.3M20
Diluted shares346.3M23.7M25.9M31.4M59.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$79.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$61.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$33.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.58

10 shares is a claim on −$79.9 of net worth that earned you −$61.36 and generated −$33.25 of cash last year, against $18.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-120% avg · 5y
FY21 -120%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -120% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−83% shares · 5y

Share count is down 83% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2022-03-01 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004366 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K filed 2023-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005649 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007616 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K filed 2025-03-28 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K filed 2026-03-27 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-011477 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)