MeritValue

Lazard, Inc.

LAZdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lazard, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.28 and $63.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.27B1$2.86B2$2.59B3$3.14B3$3.19B3
Net income$528.1M4$357.5M5−$75.5M6$279.9M6$236.8M6
Operating cash flow$866.1M7$834M8$164.7M9$742.8M9$519.3M9
Capital expenditure$39.7M10$49.5M11$28.3M12$45.5M12$31.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$826.4M7$784.5M8$136.4M9$697.3M9$487.4M9
Total debt$1.69B13$1.69B14$1.69B15$1.69B16$1.69B16
Cash & equivalents$1.47B17$1.23B18$971.3M19$1.31B19$1.47B19
Diluted shares113.7M101.0M89.0M102.4M106.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$82.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$158.75

10 shares is a claim on $82.16 of net worth that earned you $22.27 and generated $45.83 of cash last year, against $158.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -0%FY24 35%FY25 23%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.28 and $63.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$487.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$487.4M
Earnings Power Value
$27.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$279.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.43
Base0.0%$63.43
Bull5.0%$79.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002334 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006659 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007441 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001311370-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)