MeritValue

Light & Wonder, Inc.

LAWILdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Light & Wonder, Inc. earns about 192% on invested capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $40.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.15B1$2.51B2$2.9B3$3.19B3$3.31B3
Net income$371M4$3.68B5$163M6$336M6$276M6
Operating cash flow$685M7−$381M8$590M9$632M9$794M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$44M10$24M11$22M12$23M13$53M13
Cash & equivalents$585M14$914M15$425M16$196M17$167M17
Diluted shares98.0M95.0M93.0M91.0M85.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.47
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.24

10 shares is a claim on $28.82 of net worth that earned you $32.47 last year, against $6.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
192% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 130%FY23 125%FY24 123%FY25 392%

It earned an average 192% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 20% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$40.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$336M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750004-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750004-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750004-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750004-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750004-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750004-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750004-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750004-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750004-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750004-23-000006 (DebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750004-24-000015 (DebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750004-25-000016 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000750004-26-000012 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000750004-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000750004-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000750004-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000750004-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)