MeritValue

LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC.

LAURdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.41 and $57.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.09B1$1.24B2$1.48B3$1.57B3$1.7B3
Net income$192.4M4$69.6M5$107.6M6$296.5M6$281.6M6
Operating cash flow−$156.1M7$178.2M8$250.8M9$232.7M9$366.2M9
Capital expenditure$50.4M10$52.8M11$56.4M12$71.9M12$103M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$206.5M7$125.5M8$194.3M9$160.8M9$263.1M9
Total debt——$112.2M13$59M14$73.1M14
Cash & equivalents$324.8M15$85.2M16$89.4M17$91.4M17$146.7M17
Diluted shares189.7M168.3M157.9M153.9M148.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.92

10 shares is a claim on $79.9 of net worth that earned you $18.94 and generated $17.7 of cash last year, against $4.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 19%FY23 14%FY24 32%FY25 25%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.41 and $57.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$194.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$194.3M
Earnings Power Value
$13.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$192.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.17
Base15.7%$36.52
Bull20.0%$43.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006141 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006141 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006141 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006141 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006141 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006557 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009479 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)