MeritValue

NLIGHT, INC.

LASRdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NLIGHT, INC. earns about -20% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.66 and $3.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$270.1M1$242.1M2$209.9M3$198.5M3$261.3M3
Net income−$29.7M4−$54.6M5−$41.7M6−$60.8M6−$23.5M6
Operating cash flow−$7.44M7−$14.5M8$10.1M9−$2.36M9$21.3M9
Capital expenditure$19.3M10$21.4M11$5.34M12$7.93M12$9.03M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.8M7−$35.9M8$4.75M9−$10.3M9$12.3M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$146.5M14$57.8M15$53.2M16$65.8M16$98.7M16
Diluted shares42.1M44.4M46.1M47.9M50.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.46
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $45.37 of net worth that earned you −$4.7 and generated $2.46 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 -20%FY23 -17%FY24 -32%FY25 -14%

It earned about -20% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.66 and $3.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.75M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.75M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.33
Base5.0%$3.66
Bull10.0%$4.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001124796-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124796-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001124796-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124796-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001124796-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124796-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001124796-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124796-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-22-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001124796-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001124796-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124796-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)