LAMAR ADVERTISING CO/NEW
LAMRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileLAMAR ADVERTISING CO/NEW earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.72 and $86.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.79B1 | $2.03B2 | $2.11B3 | $2.21B3 | $2.27B3 |
| Net income | $388.1M4 | $438.6M5 | $495.8M6 | $361.9M6 | $587.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $734.4M7 | $781.6M8 | $783.6M9 | $873.6M9 | $864M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $126.1M10 | $167.1M11 | $178.3M12 | $125.3M12 | $180.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $608.3M7 | $614.5M8 | $605.3M9 | $748.3M9 | $683.2M9 |
| Total debt | $3.01B13 | $3.31B14 | $3.34B15 | $3.21B16 | $3.42B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $99.8M17 | $52.6M18 | $44.6M19 | $49.5M20 | $64.8M20 |
| Diluted shares | 101.3M | 101.6M | 102.1M | 102.6M | 101.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $100.83 of net worth that earned you $57.77 and generated $67.23 of cash last year, against $336.39 of debt.
It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.72 and $86.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth3.9%
- fcfBase$683.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth3.9%
- fcfBase$683.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$438.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $63.05 |
| Base | 3.9% | $81.05 |
| Bull | 8.9% | $107.85 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 3.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004975 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004975 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006537 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001090425-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)