MeritValue

LOEWS CORP

Ldata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LOEWS CORP earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $71.07 and $315.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.01B1$2.09B2$2.36B3$2.89B3$3.17B3
Net income$1.56B4$822M5$1.43B6$1.41B6$1.67B6
Operating cash flow$2.62B7$3.31B8$3.91B9$3.03B9$3.28B9
Capital expenditure$482M10$660M11$686M12$632M12$579M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.14B7$2.65B8$3.22B9$2.39B9$2.7B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$621M13$532M14$399M14$541M14$495M14
Diluted shares260.2M243.3M227.8M220.5M209.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$893.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$129.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $893.64 of net worth that earned you $79.72 and generated $129.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 12%FY24 11%FY25 12%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $71.07 and $315.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$315.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$2.7B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$262.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$2.7B
Earnings Power Value
$71.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.43B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$126.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $262.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$186.86
Base8.0%$262.87
Bull13.0%$322.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000060086-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060086-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060086-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000060086-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060086-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060086-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000060086-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060086-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060086-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000060086-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060086-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060086-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000060086-25-000036 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060086-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)