MeritValue

Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.

KYMRdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -27% on equity, but has diluted owners by 76% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$72.8M1$46.8M2$78.6M3$47.1M3$39.2M3
Net income−$100.2M4−$154.8M5−$147M6−$223.9M6−$311.4M6
Operating cash flow−$128.9M7−$153.1M8−$102.8M9−$194.5M9−$232.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.6M10$2.84M11$34.5M12$12.8M12$1.45M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$130.5M7−$155.9M8−$137.3M9−$207.3M9−$234.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$48M13$68.4M14$110M15$120.3M15$357M15
Diluted shares48.0M53.9M58.4M75.0M84.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$36.85
Free cash flow it threw off
−$27.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $186.96 of net worth that earned you −$36.85 and generated −$27.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-27% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -32%FY23 -37%FY24 -27%FY25 -20%

It earned an average -27% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+76% shares · 5y

Share count is up 76% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018414 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028355 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073395 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018414 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028355 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018414 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028355 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018414 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028355 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073395 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018414 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028355 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073395 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)