Kyivstar Group Ltd.

KYIVdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Kyivstar Group Ltd. earns about 48% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.61 and $27.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$915M1$919M1$1.16B1
Net income$281M2$283M2$124M2
Operating cash flow$413M3$430M3$558M3
Capital expenditure$96M4$162M4$247M4
Free cash flow (derived)$317M3$268M3$311M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$425M5$674M5$455M5
Diluted shares206.9M206.9M230.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.47
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $56.27 of net worth that earned you $5.37 and generated $13.47 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
48% avg · 3y
FY23 61%FY24 70%FY25 15%

It earned about 48% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 3y

Share count is up 12% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.61 and $27.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$311M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$311M
Earnings Power Value
$12.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$281M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.22
Base5.0%$25.88
Bull10.0%$31.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002062440-26-000006 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002062440-26-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002062440-26-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002062440-26-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002062440-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalents)