MeritValue

Kaixin Holdings

KXINdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kaixin Holdings earns about -275% on invested capital, and has bought back 71% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$253.8M1$82.8M2$31.5M3—$129,0003
Net income−$196.6M4−$84.7M5−$53.6M6−$41M6−$53.9M6
Operating cash flow−$2.1M7−$2.39M8−$2.11M9−$3.02M9−$2.58M9
Capital expenditure—$59,00010$396,00011$18,00011—
Free cash flow (derived)—−$2.45M8−$2.5M9−$3.04M9—
Total debt$6.28M12$2M13———
Cash & equivalents$5.26M14$7.1M15$2.09M16$2.39M17$859,00017
Diluted shares7.6M222,40812,71352,4182.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$98.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$241.98
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $98.43 of net worth that earned you −$241.98 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-275% avg · 5y
FY21 -506%FY22 -252%FY23 -97%FY24 -307%FY25 -212%

It earned an average -275% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−71% shares · 5y

Share count is down 71% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 68% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054146 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000574 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040360 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054146 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000574 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054146 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000574 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000574 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-001263 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054146 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-001263 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054146 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000574 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)