MeritValue

KINGSWAY Corp

KWYdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KINGSWAY Corp earns about 21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$78.4M1$93.3M2$103.2M3$109.4M4$135M4
Net income$1.86M5$15.1M6$24M7−$8.3M8−$10.3M8
Operating cash flow−$5.91M9−$14.6M10−$26.2M11$1.07M12−$3,00012
Capital expenditure$830,00013————
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.74M9————
Total debt$94.1M14$102.1M15$44.4M16$57.5M17$70.7M17
Cash & equivalents$10.1M18$64.2M19$9.1M20$5.49M21$8.31M21
Diluted shares22.5M25.3M26.4M27.2M27.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.68
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.38

10 shares is a claim on $5.44 of net worth that earned you −$3.68 last year, against $25.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 69%FY23 47%FY24 -5%FY25 -9%

It earned an average 21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.86M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005796 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006644 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007961 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005796 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006644 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008039 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007961 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005796 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006644 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004674 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005796 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006644 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008039 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007961 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005796 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006644 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007961 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)